Peace Talks Are Happening And Markets Are Going Wild

Monday around noon, President Donald Trump announced that the US and Iran had spent two days in talks - and that he was pressing pause on any military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Markets didn't wait for the details. They shot up instantly.

The Dow Jones surged 1,100 points - a 2.6% jump. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 both leapt 2.7%. All in a matter of minutes.

And oil prices? They crashed.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell more than 9% in a single session.

Brent - the international benchmark - dropped more than 13%.

So what did Trump say exactly:

“I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” wrote Trump in a Truth Social post.

“Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

What does this mean for your portfolio?

If you've been watching the news over the past five weeks - because yes, this Iran conflict has been running for five weeks now - you'll know the markets have not been having a good time.

The Dow had just recorded its first four-week losing streak since 2023.

The Dow and Nasdaq fell around 2% each last week, while the S&P 500 lost 1.5%.

The European STOXX 600 has been hit even harder, falling almost 10% in three weeks.

In simpler terms: a lot of investors have been watching their portfolios slide.

The reason?

When geopolitical risk spikes, investors tend to get nervous and start selling.

In this case, when the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes - is threatened with closure, energy prices go up, inflation fears return, and every market gets nervous.

What just changed and what hasn't

Trump's announcement gave markets exactly what they were hungry for: a reason to believe the worst-case scenario might not happen. And markets moved accordingly.

But here's the part the headline doesn't tell you: nothing has been resolved. The pause on strikes lasts five days, "subject to the success of ongoing meetings."

Iran has not agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

And as strategist Ben Emons of Fed Watch Advisors noted, Iran "is not backing down."

The bigger picture and what to actually do

This is the part we think is worth sitting with.

Markets made some significant moves based on one social media post. That’s both exciting and unsettling - and a reminder of how emotional markets are.

They react, they overshoot, they panic, and they surge. And next week could look entirely different.

What this moment does offer is a useful nudge to check in with your own financial situation. Not in a panic, but with curiosity.

It’s a good time to check in with your long term strategy. Weeks like the last four are noise - uncomfortable noise, but noise. Historically, markets recover. The investors who do worst are often the ones who sell during the dip.

Geopolitics and markets will always be intertwined. The conflict in the Middle East, oil prices, Trump's next post - none of it is fully predictable, and none of it is in your control.

What is in your control is sticking to your strategy and avoid letting your emotions interfere.

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What's your reaction to the market swings lately - are you checking your investments more, or trying to tune it out? Tell us in the comments 👇