4/12/25

The Big Black Friday Mood Check

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Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 are officially behind us – and the receipts are in. Online spending smashed records, AI shopping buddies worked overtime, and malls saw a mix of eager deal hunters and plenty of strategic, focused shoppers.

Taken together, the trends don’t tell us everything about the economy, but they do offer a helpful pulse check – and a few clues for investors.

Why These Numbers Matter For Markets

Holiday shopping isn’t just about promo codes and wrestling someone for the last PlayStation. It’s one of the biggest snapshots of consumer behaviour we get all year - and consumer spending is a huge driver of the global economy.

When people spend, companies earn. When companies earn, profits grow. And when profits grow, markets tend to notice.

Retailers, e-commerce platforms, payment networks, and delivery companies all use this week as an early read on how the rest of the holiday season might perform. Think of it as a stress test for the entire retail ecosystem.

What The Data Shows

Here’s the quick snapshot of what happened last weekend:

Online spending hit $11.8 billion on Black Friday in the U.S., up 9.1% from last year.
According to one analytics provider, global online spending reached $79 billion, up 6%.
One data set suggests AI-driven traffic to retail sites jumped a staggering 805%, showing how quickly shoppers are adopting digital helpers.
Some estimates indicate average prices were 7% higher than last year, while order volumes fell 1% – meaning shoppers spent more money, but on fewer items.
Physical stores saw mixed results: some trackers showed a dip, others a small rise.

Most of the headline numbers come from the US, where Black Friday and Cyber Monday began, but these sales events have increasingly spread across Europe and other regions too - especially online.

Over the next few weeks, investors will be looking at company updates to see whether this sales strength shows up in earnings or just in headline revenue numbers. But for now, let’s look at what was driving these numbers.

What’s Behind The Headline Records

Online Spending Was A Rocket

Record numbers flew in this year. Interestingly, order volumes dipped slightly even as total spending rose – meaning shoppers bought fewer items, but paid more for each. Inflation and tariffs are still part of the story, even during deal season.

Adobe estimates that US shoppers spent around $44.2 billion online over the five‑day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, up about 6% from last year, underlining how much spending has shifted into the digital channel.

AI Became A Growing Shopping Sidekick

Traffic from AI shopping assistants surged. Whether you used a chatbot to find the cheapest red light mask or just asked it to pick a gift for your impossible-to-shop-for dad, AI was basically the friend who actually reads the fine print.

Salesforce data suggest that AI agents and AI‑powered tools are now influencing around one in five online orders globally during Cyber Week - about 22% of transactions, or roughly $70–$75 billion in sales.

Discounts Were… Fine

Promotions were everywhere, but not dramatically deeper than last year. Industry data show retailers are putting fewer items on sale and using slightly smaller markdowns to protect margins, even as they chase volume.

Steep discounts are exciting for shoppers, but they eat into a retailer’s bottom line. That’s why investors will pay close attention to whether record sales also translate into healthy profits when earnings reports come out.

Buy Now, Pay Later Kept Its Grip

"Buy now, pay later” (BNPL), or splitting purchases into multiple payments, remained a crowd favourite. Klarna has said that record Black Friday demand helped lift its November transaction volume by about 45% compared with a year earlier, underscoring how central these services have become to holiday shopping.

BNPL can be a useful tool for some, but it can also be a sign that budgets are tight and shoppers are spreading purchases out.

Shoppers Are Strategic, Not Wild

Today’s shoppers aren’t panic-grabbing TVs at dawn anymore. They’re more deliberate, patient, and laser-focused on getting the right price. It’s less “Black Friday chaos” and more “I’ve trained for this all year.”

Holiday surveys from firms like McKinsey and Mastercard suggest many households went into the season with fixed budgets and shopping lists, focusing on essentials and delayed “big ticket” items while actively hunting for discounts and comparing prices.

How Different Sectors And Business Models Are Affected

Every sale has a ripple effect. Here’s how different parts of the market feel it:

Online Platforms And Marketplaces

Higher online volumes are basically their Super Bowl. More traffic, more sales, more data – all good news.

Payment Companies

More online checkouts mean more fees. Credit cards, mobile wallets, and BNPL services all benefit from higher transaction volumes.

Delivery And Logistics

Does your front door currently looks like a cardboard recycling centre? You’re not alone. Delivery networks see huge parcel spikes – hectic for couriers, but good for business.

Brick-And-Mortar Retailers

Mixed traffic tells the story: some stores saw gains (especially department stores), while others had declines. Shoppers had narrower missions, and many stayed home due to inflation worries, tariff uncertainty, and a softer labour market.

How Markets Have Reacted So Far

So far, markets have taken the record spending in stride. In the first trading session after Black Friday, major US indices like the S&P 500 and Dow pulled back slightly after a strong week going into Black Friday, and broad retail and consumer ETFs were roughly flat to slightly higher, suggesting cautious optimism rather than euphoria.

What This Means For A Long-Term Investor’s Portfolio

So how do these shopping habits connect to your long-term investing life?

Strong spending can support broader markets - but it’s not a guarantee.

Healthy consumer spending often boosts confidence in companies and markets. But it’s a hint – not a guarantee – of how earnings might look. That can be positive for stock markets overall, though investors will still wait to see real numbers later.

Sector ETFs may move on holiday results.

A sector ETF bundles many companies from the same industry into one fund. Consumer, retail, and e-commerce ETFs often react to holiday performance because it shapes expectations for the season.
Good weekend = optimism. Weak weekend = questions. But these moves are usually short‑lived and only one piece of a much bigger macro puzzle, alongside things like interest rates, inflation and jobs data.

One weekend shouldn’t change your entire investment plan.

It’s tempting to chase whatever retailer is trending or dump a stock because foot traffic was soft. But holiday weekends are just one moment in a very long year. Companies rise or fall based on long-term strategy, not a single weekend of discounts.

Keep an eye on your portfolio mix - not hype.

If you unintentionally built a portfolio that’s 40 percent retail stocks, this is a great reminder to diversify. A mix of sectors smooths out seasonal ups and downs.

Final Thoughts

Holiday headlines can feel noisy – record sales! quiet stores! AI buying your presents! – but behind all of it is a simple message: consumer behaviour is shifting, and markets are paying close attention to what that means over time.

Instead of reacting to every spike or slump, use this moment as a gentle nudge. Are you spending with intention? Saving consistently? Investing in a way that serves the life you actually want?

Trends will shift. Shopping habits will shift. But your long-term financial plan only gets stronger the more you stick with it.

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Do you ever look at your favourite shops’ holiday sales and think about what that might mean for their share price or sector ETFs? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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